Navigating volatility and the AI theme

Among the ancients (of whom I am one) the stock market is today of exceptional gravity. Today marks the first business day following America’s imposition of extraordinary tariffs upon its primary international business partners.  Though the anticipated war of negotiations and like-minded reciprocity has yet to unfold, speaking for myself I am already resolved in my determination.

Over the weekend, it was announced that U.S. President Donald Trump intended to institute a blanket 25% tariff on all goods imported from Mexico and a similar 25% on all imports from Canada except energy which will be levied at10%. An additional 10% tariff on all Chinese imports was also announced. While the use of tariffs was a frequent campaign trail promise, applying them in a blanket fashion – and to two primary trading partners was a surprise. Equity, fixed income, commodity and currency markets are likely to react sharply over the next few days as last-minute negotiations are sought and/or counter tariffs announced. This remains a highly fluid situation and we urge patience and calm as details evolve.

Brown & Associates Wealth Advisory Group

Watching the stock market and reading the intelligence of one’s financial advisors is certainly a possibility. It is however a distraction or disposition of little more value than obsessing about the imponderable future.  If I were capable to do anything of worthiness in this imperilled evaporation, evacuation and exchange I should no doubt do so; but having long ago distanced myself from the arena, choosing instead to watch from the grandstand, my philosophy is much different. My only contribution to that sphere of activity is occasionally to exercise the advice of Andrew Carnegie; that is, the practice of taking small gains (an apothegm which is the closest synthesis of parsimony and retail I can hope for). Apart from that petty prescription I am resigned to fate and the stars.

As for the AI theme I am persuaded to follow its evolution from China where I understand the Chinese already have discovered technology so advanced as to outperform all others. And more cheaply than others. When I consider the burgeoning bent of oligarchs for isolation and uniformity, there seems little advantage to objection to what is overwhelmingly advanced. It qualifies as utter mendacity to promote international division given the appetite for global commerce and communication.  Frankly isolationism is a thinly disguised form of racism, one which is as preposterous no matter from which angle it is perceived.

I see no strength whatsoever imaging for some pathetic nationalistic bias that Western society should presume to exceed the historic performance of the East. Surely the time has come to abandon the fable and myths of the past for the reality of the present. What I have gleaned from what I have read is that oligarchical conflict is a product not of differences (either social, racial or religious – though they are touted as much) but of power struggle. There is no person more equipped or anxious to adapt than an oligarch.  So called national values and precedent are mere tokens of utility. What matters is the ensuing weight and governance of the elite and aristocracy including its minions.

As a member of hoi polloi there is universally minor influence at the state or county level of federal or national politicians, policies or prejudices.  Stability is the vapour that clouds what are the more pressing and personal objectives of the local statesmen. The absurdity of prohibition and marijuana illegality for example have dissolved at the behest of the masses. It is only the irrelevance of the oligarchs which spares the population. But turning the dial is unfortunately today no less critical or improbable than confronting the judiciary of the Salem Witch trials; that is, blunt stupidity is treacherous. As long as the conversation is focused upon unimaginable theories, especially those tainted with theatrical rubbish which the unwitting populace values for entertainment or satisfaction of aggression, we hinder our collective progress.

Though it may seem impertinent to comment, the theme which blankets the whole is the precipitous uncertainty of life. The Greeks and the Romans, who long ago triumphed governance of the globe, soon learned that fortunes can change in a moment, Replacing the haughtiness of the rulers was a shackled walk upon a scaffold. The recollection of, “Et tu, Brute?” is sufficient reminder.

It has been argued that the phrase can be interpreted as a curse or warning. One theory states that the historic Caesar adapted the words of a Greek sentence which to the Romans had long since become proverbial: the complete phrase is said to have been “You too, my son, will have a taste of power”, of which Caesar only needed to invoke the opening words to foreshadow Brutus’s own violent death, in response to his assassination.