It is guaranteed that no matter the outcome, life will go on.  It will not be the end of the world or the start of a new one, whatever happens. Things will settle down and continue much as they have always done before. Nonetheless the prediction of the result of the upcoming US presidential election is something which grips the minds of many.  It is undoubtedly partly a roulette game, a spin of the wheel, awaiting the ball to come to rest.  Certainly it is a matter of political interest, certainly one of enormous international intrigue as well, not to mention the mere optics for America generally. Predominantly though for those of us not immediately involved it is a question of prediction. The augury is the thing.

The 2024 United States presidential election will be the 60th quadrennial presidential election, set to be held on Tuesday, November 5, 2024.  It is an event which has captivated an incalculable audience.  I have decided that it is my turn to step into the fray.  When Donald J. Trump first made his international appearance on the global stage, coming down the moving staircase at Trump Tower in New York City, I was smitten by his appeal to the popular vote.  While I certainly did not approve of his use of the English language, and while I questioned the bona fides of his entrepreneurial skills, and while I suspected his lasciviousness and vulgarity generally, I recognized his entertainment value and thus his off-beat attraction.  In plain words, he stood out from the rest. His address, though toxic both intellectually and grammatically, was resilient to dismissal. I considered everything about him inauthentic though patently devoted to winning approbation.  His appeal was vulgar but common.  His religious affiliation was excusable by the same token.

But things have changed since his descent upon the moving staircase.  Trump has overlooked some critical features of entertainment; viz., you can’t repeat the same material over and over, the jokes become stale, age is a factor, you’ll eventually run out of agents who are willing to promote you, and – finally – a well known adage.

On September 2, 1858, speaking in Clinton, Illinois, during the famous Lincoln-Douglas debates, Abraham Lincoln made one of his most famous statements: “You can fool all the people some of the time and some of the people all the time, but you cannot fool all the people all the time.”

I have confidence in the thinking of the American public.  For the past decade we have spent 6 months a year in the United States of America.  I once lived in Washington DC not far from the residence of then Vice President Richard Nixon and I went to Horace Mann School with his daughter Julie. There is no reason in my mind whatsoever which promotes or supports on average anything but a kindly consideration of the American people.

What happened with Trump was, as he himself has confessed or implied, pure luck.  He may well have hit upon an element of American society which is angry and frustrated; but elections are about predominance.  This current election is a reminder that fooling people is a transitional enterprise.  In my opinion, for a variety of reasons (which amount to no more validity than those of any other so-called pundits), Trump has exhausted his charm and diversion.  The American people have decided it’s time to go hope, to leave the circus tent or amphitheater or playhouse, to restore the elemental values of magnanimity, gentility and substance to an otherwise rollercoaster preoccupation. There are too disturbing and inalterable confessions to be addressed regarding demographic changes, generational shifts, waning religious practices and awakening realities about climate, education, health and excess. The time for mere entertainment has passed.

The one other thing about Americans I know is that they care about what the world thinks of them. No longer is the Ugly American a sustainable image as I experienced it in Europe when travelling there in my teens.

In conclusion, it doesn’t matter what are my reasons; I simply predict that Trump’s days are over.  Naturally this is no reflection upon the GOP.  The so-called “conservative” factor in American politics will survive as it does in every political vernacular.